Cold War End CIA Files - Bush Administration CIA 1989-1991

Cold War End CIA Files - Bush Administration CIA 1989-1991

378 pages of selected CIA reports covering the collapse of communism in the Soviet Union and the end of the of the cold war between 1989 and 1991. Files contain selected pages from National and Special National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs and SNIEs). NIEs and SNIEs are prepared for the President, the Cabinet, the National Security Council, and senior policymakers and officials. NIEs focus on strategic issues of mid or long-term importance to US policy and national security, and SNIEs address near-term issues of more urgent concern.

Files show how the US intelligence community interpreted and predicted the rapidly unfolding events that led to the collapse of Soviet communism. Files show that the intelligence community early on took a pessimistic view of Gorbachev's chances for success in reforming the Soviet system. Topics include: Gorbachev's economic programs, USSR domestic instability, and withdrawal From Afghanistan.

The files used in this collection were selected by Benjamin B. Fischer of CIA's History Staff. In 1999 Fischer chose from then newly declassified US intelligence documents covering the years 1989-1991, to present as Center for the Study of Intelligence’s contribution to a 1999 conference, “US Intelligence and the End of the Cold War.”

The reports cover the challenges faced by Gorbachev as he was attempting to enact Perestroika, the end of control of Eastern Europe, and conflict within the Soviet republics. Report titles include:

Gorbachev's Economic Programs: The Challenges Ahead

Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Soviet Analysis, September1989,Gorbachev's Domestic Gambles and Instability in the USSR

The Soviet System in Crisis: Prospects for the Next Two Years

The Deepening Crisis in the USSR: Prospects for the Next Year

Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Soviet Analysis, April 1991, "The Soviet Cauldron"

Implications of Alternative Soviet Futures July 1991

Civil Disorder in the Former USSR: Can It Be Managed This Winter? November 1991

Soviet Policy Toward Eastern Europe Under Gorbachev May 1988

The Future of Eastern Europe April 1990

The Republics of the Former USSR: The Outlook for the Next Year September 1991